Bagdad Bob, Zoom, Bank Statement Madness, Power of One, Employee’s rights & COVID19 Webinar
22nd March 2020 Evolution Partners Newsletter
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”–Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
Hope you’re surviving!
(And can still dream of Thriving!)
Well, it all got a bit too real this last week when our family commenced controlled social distancing (ie lockdown). A joke from Jimmy Fallon who is also under self-imposed, self-quarantine was quite striking when he said they were on day 86 of lockdown, whereby his wife interrupted to say it was actually only day 3.
I remember in 2003 during the first US Iraq war each day the Iraqi government spokesman known colloquially by the media as Bagdad Bob, would confront the media, and despite the overwhelming evidence that the US had captured major Iraqi landmarks – there were literally embedded reporters showing live footage as troops relaxed around captured major landmarks — he would continue to run the Government line that there were no troops in the city and that there were no Iraqi casualties, and that hundreds of American soldiers were committing suicide. This was before the times of fake news we are surrounded by now, it was one of the first times I remember a Government official completely disregarded any facts and running the Government line until the bitter end, no matter how nonsensical the statements he was making.
And you know, I hate to say it, but we’ve seen a little bit of Baghdad Bob come through in reporting areas recently. Don’t get me wrong, this is definitely not a political newsletter, nor a conspiracy theory, all I’m saying is that there is a lot at stake right now for leaders and business owners, and I urge you to look to the facts, and not what the Government might want you to hear until the timing suits them. Start with simple facts like maths, look at the average number of confirmed cases in your region, then determine the daily growth and project the daily growth through April and May.
Then confront the Brutal Facts.
Things will get worse before they get better. If ever you need a plan, it’s right now.
My suggestion, for what it’s worth is that most small to medium businesses that aren’t benefiting from this (such as Zoom who has added more users so far this year than all of 2019) is probably entering a recession so fast that they don’t even know it. I know of several companies who have gone from making a budget to $0 in about 7 days. If you’re not as unlucky as them, you need a plan to get to breakeven by June 30, no matter what. Maybe you don’t have that long, maybe it should be March 30, but there is no substitute for confidence in a plan.
Through this, I’d like to remind you of the Stockdale Paradox, it goes like this.
Jim Stockdale was an American pilot in the Vietnam war. He was captured and made into a POW. He spent 8 gruesome years in a war camp in Vietnam while being tortured almost daily. After he was able to escape, he explained how he survived and why both optimists and pessimists were the first ones to die in the camp. The paradox goes like this: You must retain faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties. AND at the same time… You must confront the brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.
Please have faith that you will prevail, but at the same time, confront the brutal facts.
Culturally, Australians have a very casual attitude when dealing with difficult problems which can be best described as “She’ll be right mate”. When confronted with a challenging situation, Australians would often take setbacks in their stride and simply deal with issues, with a deeply held belief that everything will be OK in the end. And right now, that attitude of casual acceptance that things will work out without fuss or stress, not completely dissimilar to the American teenagers celebrating spring break in the US state of Florida coupled with the possibility that Bagdad Bob maybe subconsciously role modelling for our politicians, creates an interesting situation. And so I began to dig into some interesting numbers.
A few days ago Australia hit 559 Coronavirus cases. When China hit 571 cases they locked down 11 million people in Hubei. In this analysis, I look at the compound growth projections for the virus, what that means for the health system and how that will impact your business in the coming weeks.
Finally, I list the 4 things you must act on now.
Check out my detailed analysis here
COVID-19 Information and Perspective for Business Owners 18 March 2020.
What I’m interested in
A great resource for analysing bank statements
If you are looking through your bank statements and trying to understand what money is going where, and who it is that you’re paying, this is a fantastic resource.
For example, if your bank statement says “JACS ORS” with an amount for $25, who is that for? This tool will tell you it’s an ACT government car park.
This is only an Australian tool but can be very handy.
Check it out here Bank Statement Madness
Cash analysing tool
If you’re trying to make the numbers work I suggest a simple online tool from Alan Miltz called Cash Flow Story which Alan has released for no charge in the current CoVID19 market.
You simply enter 6 figures your Revenue, Margin, Profit, Accounts Receivable, Inventory, and Accounts Payable and it will provide you with the Power of One tool for you to analyse what you can do to significantly improve your cash position.
These figures could be for your quarterly budget to June 30, or just use the past 3 months or 3 quarters, either way, it’s a great tool to understand your cash flow and understand how to improve your cash position. Just create an account and click “stress test my business”.
What I’m reading
Employee’s rights to leave and pay
Across the world may employers are making decisions to reduce payroll in order to try and avoid crippling losses. Unfortunately, I’m sure you probably know some.
In this blog post by Employment Hero, they outline the obligations for Australian Employers including sick leave, leave without pay, ordinary pay, stand down and no pay, and how they apply.
Check out the article below.
What I’m doing
In this webinar interview from the USA I’m discussing COVID19 and the impact on business, along with the following panellists:
- Ron Huntington – EMT consulting Seattle, Washington
- Juletta Broomfield – GOLGlobal Costa Rica
- Keith Cupp (Moderator) – Gravitas Impact – Portland, Oregon
We discuss the following items;
- The current state of the economy business is facing
- The mindset you need to focus on to get through this pandemic (stay pragmatic)
- The 3 scenarios you must assess immediately with your accountant
- How the growth rates you are observing are going to impact your business
- The role of the CEO in Coronavirus
- What to consider about your staff relative to Coronavirus
- What other companies are doing now about Coronavirus
- The basic plan you need to build now